Abstract
In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, we evaluate the effects of vaccines and virus variants on epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes by means of Monte Carlo simulations of a macroeconomic-epidemiological agent-based model calibrated using data from the Lombardy region of Italy. From simulations we infer that vaccination plays the role of a mitigating factor, reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves and significantly improving macroeconomic performance with respect to a scenario without vaccination. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an accelerating factor, leading to a deterioration of both epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes and partly negating the beneficial impacts of the vaccine. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.
Lingua originale | English |
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pagine (da-a) | 991-1046 |
Numero di pagine | 56 |
Rivista | Journal of Evolutionary Economics |
Volume | 33 |
DOI | |
Stato di pubblicazione | Pubblicato - 2023 |
Keywords
- Agent-based Model
- Epidemic