Use of systems analysis to develop plant disease models based on literature data: grape black-rot as a case-study

The available knowledge on black-rot of grape was retrieved from literature, analyzed, and synthesized to develop a mechanistic model of the life cycle of the pathogen (Guignardia bidwelii) based on the systems analysis. An analysis of published, quantitative information was conducted to develop a mechanistic model driven by weather and vine phenology. The model was then evaluated for its ability to represent the real system and its usefulness for understanding black-rot epidemics by using three typical epidemics. Finally, weaknesses in our knowledge are discussed.