Abstract
The uncertainties in the model of an energy distribution system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and loads (power demanded by the end-users) are investigated, treating the epistemic variables as possibilistic and the aleatory ones as probabilistic. In particular, time-varying probabilistic distributions of the solar irradiation and the power demanded by the end-users is inferred from historical data. Then a computational framework for the joint propagation of both types of uncertainty is applied through the model of the energy distribution system to compute the Expected Energy Not Supplied. © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
| Lingua originale | Inglese |
|---|---|
| Titolo della pubblicazione ospite | Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 |
| Pagine | 3203-3211 |
| Numero di pagine | 9 |
| Stato di pubblicazione | Pubblicato - 2014 |
| Evento | European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 - Amsterdam, nld Durata: 29 set 2013 → 2 ott 2013 |
Convegno
| Convegno | European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 |
|---|---|
| Città | Amsterdam, nld |
| Periodo | 29/9/13 → 2/10/13 |
Keywords
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality