Uncertainty analysis of a model of an energy distribution system with solar panel generation by time-varying data analysis, Monte carlo simulation and fuzzy interval analysis

Alessia Pini, E. Ferrario, A. Pini

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in libroContributo a convegno

Abstract

The uncertainties in the model of an energy distribution system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and loads (power demanded by the end-users) are investigated, treating the epistemic variables as possibilistic and the aleatory ones as probabilistic. In particular, time-varying probabilistic distributions of the solar irradiation and the power demanded by the end-users is inferred from historical data. Then a computational framework for the joint propagation of both types of uncertainty is applied through the model of the energy distribution system to compute the Expected Energy Not Supplied. © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
Lingua originaleEnglish
Titolo della pubblicazione ospiteSafety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
Pagine3203-3211
Numero di pagine9
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2014
EventoEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 - Amsterdam, nld
Durata: 29 set 20132 ott 2013

Convegno

ConvegnoEuropean Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013
CittàAmsterdam, nld
Periodo29/9/132/10/13

Keywords

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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