Traiettorie di rischio: studi e ricerche su fattori di rischio e di protezione

Decision making is generally an uncertain process and in social practice is oriented towards identifying, assessing and quantifying risk. Risk can be defined as a social construct and it refers to both the likelihood of a specific event and the severity of that event. This article provides an overview of the context in which decision about risk are made in child welfare including personal and environmental factors. The recent risk assessment tools/models, useful to assess whether or not the abuse has occurred and/or if it is likely to occur in the future, are considered. The literature classifies these models under primarily two headings: consensus based instruments (with items that are included based on the clinical judgement of experts) and actuarial instruments (items included are empirically identified by studying child abuse cases referred to social services and maltreatment outcomes). Moreover the “safety” concept is discussed: its assessment focuses on the risk of severe harm in the immediate future so that short-term decisions can be made.