The elderly prognostic index predicts early mortality in older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. An ad hoc analysis of the elderly project by the Fondazione Italiana Linfomi

The Elderly Prognostic Index (EPI) is based on the integration of a simplified geriatric assessment, hemoglobin levels and International Prognostic Index and has been validated to predict overall survival in older patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). In this study, we evaluated the ability of EPI to predict the risk of early mortality. This study included all patients registered in the Elderly Project for whom treatment details and a minimum follow-up of 3 months were available. Three main treatment groups were identified based on the anthracycline amount administered: cases receiving >70% of the theoretical anthracyclines dose (Full Dose [FD] group), ≤70% (Reduced Dose [RD]) and palliative therapy (PT; no anthracyclines). The primary endpoint was early mortality rate, defined as death for any cause occurring within 90 days from diagnosis. We identified 1150 patients with a median age of 76 years (range 65–94). Overall, 69 early deaths were observed, accounting for 19% of all reported deaths. The cumulative rate of early mortality at 90 days was 6.0%. Comparing early with delayed deaths, we observed a lower frequency of deaths due to lymphoma progression (42% vs. 75%; p < 0.001) and a higher frequency due to toxicity and infections (22% vs. 4%, p < 0.001, and 22% vs. 3%, p < 0.001, respectively) for early events. A multivariable logistic analysis on 931 patients (excluding PT) confirmed an independent association of high-risk EPI (odds ratio [OR] 3.60; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15–11.2) and bulky disease (OR 2.08; 95% CI 1.09–3.97) with the risk of early mortality. The cumulative incidence of early mortality for older patients with DLBCL is not negligible and is mainly associated with non-lymphoma related events. For patients receiving anthracyclines, high-risk EPI and bulky disease are associated with a higher probability of early mortality.