The Belt and Road Initiative and Beijing’s Evolving Role in Middle Asia

Since it was first announced in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has undergone several transformations, retaining its economic and commercial value while strengthening its political dimension and becoming the primary tool for expanding Beijing’s influence in the international arena. Initially a limited (albeit ambitious) effort to streamline land and sea routes between Asia and Europe and “break the bottleneck of Asian connectivity”, its scope and geographical reach have expanded over time. Now a global initiative spanning several continents, the BRI continues to pay special attention to Middle Asia, a critical geographic pivot, and a key prize in Beijing’s quest for regional hegemony. Middle Asia has always been a sensitive spot. Situated at the crossroads of different spheres of influence, it has traditionally been the most effective link between Europe and Asia. At the same time, the fragmentation of the local power system has often made it difficult to control. In recent years, the interplay of Russian, Western and, increasingly, Chinese interests has overlapped with these traditional dynamics, creating new tensions and alignments. Against this backdrop, countries such as Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan, and the former Soviet republics of Central Asia have been able to reshape their geopolitical roles and strengthen their positions vis-à-vis their potential partners. This growing activism has forced Beijing to adapt its approach to the region and develop more flexible strategies to extend its influence. As far as Middle Asia is concerned, the idea is that many endogenous and exogenous elements are working together to contain China’s rise. The interplay of these elements determines how Beijing could promote its vision and support its interests in this highly integrated geopolitical environment and the limits of its actions in dealing with its regional and global partners.