TY - JOUR
T1 - Charting the Path Forward for Risk Prediction in Liver Transplant for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: International Validation of HALTHCC Among 4,089 Patients
AU - Firl, Daniel J.
AU - Sasaki, Kazunari
AU - Agopian, Vatche G.
AU - Gorgen, Andre
AU - Kimura, Shoko
AU - Dumronggittigule, Wethit
AU - Mcvey, John C.
AU - Iesari, Samuele
AU - Mennini, Gianluca
AU - Vitale, Alessandro
AU - Finkenstedt, Armin
AU - Onali, Simona
AU - Hoppe-Lotichius, Maria
AU - Vennarecci, Giovanni
AU - Manzia, Tommaso M.
AU - Nicolini, Daniele
AU - Avolio, Alfonso Wolfango
AU - Agnes, Salvatore
AU - Vivarelli, Marco
AU - Tisone, Giuseppe
AU - Ettorre, Giuseppe M.
AU - Otto, Gerd
AU - Tsochatzis, Emmanuel
AU - Rossi, Massimo
AU - Viveiros, Andre
AU - Cillo, Umberto
AU - Markmann, James F.
AU - Ikegami, Toru
AU - Kaido, Toshimi
AU - Lai, Quirino
AU - Sapisochin, Gonzalo
AU - Lerut, Jan
AU - Aucejo, Federico N.
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - Prognosticating outcomes in liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to challenge the field. Although Milan Criteria (MC) generalized the practice of LT for HCC and improved outcomes, its predictive character has degraded with increasing candidate and oncological heterogeneity. We sought to validate and recalibrate a previously developed, preoperatively calculated, continuous risk score, the Hazard Associated with Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HALTHCC), in an international cohort. From 2002 to 2014, 4,089 patients (both MC in and out [25.2%]) across 16 centers in North America, Europe, and Asia were included. A continuous risk score using pre-LT levels of alpha-fetoprotein, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium score, and tumor burden score was recalibrated among a randomly selected cohort (n = 1,021) and validated in the remainder (n = 3,068). This study demonstrated significant heterogeneity by site and year, reflecting practice trends over the last decade. On explant pathology, both vascular invasion (VI) and poorly differentiated component (PDC) increased with increasing HALTHCC score. The lowest-risk patients (HALTHCC 0-5) had lower rates of VI and PDC than the highest-risk patients (HALTHCC > 35) (VI, 7.7%[ 1.2-14.2] vs. 70.6% [48.3-92.9] and PDC:4.6% [0.1%-9.8%] vs. 47.1% [22.6-71.5]; P < 0.0001 for both). This trend was robust to MC status. This international study was used to adjust the coefficients in the HALTHCC score. Before recalibration, HALTHCC had the greatest discriminatory ability for overall survival (OS; C-index = 0.61) compared to all previously reported scores. Following recalibration, the prognostic utility increased for both recurrence (C-index = 0.71) and OS (C-index = 0.63). Conclusion: This large international trial validated and refined the role for the continuous risk metric, HALTHCC, in establishing pre-LT risk among candidates with HCC worldwide. Prospective trials introducing HALTHCC into clinical practice are warranted.
AB - Prognosticating outcomes in liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) continues to challenge the field. Although Milan Criteria (MC) generalized the practice of LT for HCC and improved outcomes, its predictive character has degraded with increasing candidate and oncological heterogeneity. We sought to validate and recalibrate a previously developed, preoperatively calculated, continuous risk score, the Hazard Associated with Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HALTHCC), in an international cohort. From 2002 to 2014, 4,089 patients (both MC in and out [25.2%]) across 16 centers in North America, Europe, and Asia were included. A continuous risk score using pre-LT levels of alpha-fetoprotein, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease Sodium score, and tumor burden score was recalibrated among a randomly selected cohort (n = 1,021) and validated in the remainder (n = 3,068). This study demonstrated significant heterogeneity by site and year, reflecting practice trends over the last decade. On explant pathology, both vascular invasion (VI) and poorly differentiated component (PDC) increased with increasing HALTHCC score. The lowest-risk patients (HALTHCC 0-5) had lower rates of VI and PDC than the highest-risk patients (HALTHCC > 35) (VI, 7.7%[ 1.2-14.2] vs. 70.6% [48.3-92.9] and PDC:4.6% [0.1%-9.8%] vs. 47.1% [22.6-71.5]; P < 0.0001 for both). This trend was robust to MC status. This international study was used to adjust the coefficients in the HALTHCC score. Before recalibration, HALTHCC had the greatest discriminatory ability for overall survival (OS; C-index = 0.61) compared to all previously reported scores. Following recalibration, the prognostic utility increased for both recurrence (C-index = 0.71) and OS (C-index = 0.63). Conclusion: This large international trial validated and refined the role for the continuous risk metric, HALTHCC, in establishing pre-LT risk among candidates with HCC worldwide. Prospective trials introducing HALTHCC into clinical practice are warranted.
KW - LIVER TRANSPLANTATION, HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA, RISK FACTORS, OUTCOME, PROGNOSTIC SCORE
KW - LIVER TRANSPLANTATION, HEPATOCELLULAR CARCINOMA, RISK FACTORS, OUTCOME, PROGNOSTIC SCORE
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10807/141687
UR - https://aasldpubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15273350
U2 - 10.1002/hep.30838
DO - 10.1002/hep.30838
M3 - Article
SN - 1527-3350
VL - N/A
SP - N/A-N/A
JO - Hepatology
JF - Hepatology
ER -