Systematic literature review for modeling Black rot disease of grapevine

Systematic literature review (SLR) is a method to retrieve, analyse and summarize research studies, conducted through an explicit and reproducible methodology. SLR includes meta-synthesis and meta-analysis to: (i) develop new conceptualizations and interpretations; (ii) combine the results of different studies in order to identify the overall trend of the results, and (iii) transform the findings of existing studies in raw data for further analysis and interpretation. SLRs have been carried out in many disciplines, but none was performed in plant pathology with the aim of developing mechanistic, dynamic models of specific patho-systems. In this work, the available knowledge on Guignardia bidwelii, the causal agent of black-rot of grapevine, was retrieved through a SLR and analysed to conceptualize the life cycle of the pathogen. Following the ‘systems analysis’ approach the life cycle was divided in three compartments: (i) production and maturation of ascospores from pseudothecia and conidia from pycnidia in berry mummies and cane lesions (i.e.,the primary inoculum of the disease); (ii) infection caused by ascospores and conidia; (iii) disease onset and production of secondary inoculum. A mechanistic model, driven by weather and vine phenology data was developed from a meta-analysis of the quantitative information available in the literature. In particular, new equations were developed for ascospore and conidial maturation in overwintered fruiting bodies, spore release and survival, infection occurrence and severity, incubation and latency periods, onset of the lesions, production of pycnidia and infectious period. Finally, the model was evaluated to demonstrate its capability to represent the real system and in helping understanding black-rot epidemics