Abstract
The parameterisation process of a previously
developed modelling structure of the grapevine-downy
mildew pathosystem is described. The model incorporates
primary and secondary infections, host crop
growth and development, along with a linkage between
disease on foliage and disease on clusters. This processbased
model was developed with a main objective of
understanding the behaviour of the pathosystem under
different, variable, environmental conditions, or under
climate change. Six scenarios of disease conduciveness
were developed in order to capture the range of environmental
conditions under which potential downy mildew
of grapevine epidemics can develop. These climate
scenarios were based on moisture and temperature factors.
The scenarios were translated into vectors of parameters
for primary and secondary infections in the
model. Model testing was performed in three steps: (i)
an analysis of potential epidemics was conducted from
the literature on grapevine downy mildew in order to
delineate the behaviour of the pathosystem under different
scenarios; (ii) a simulation experiment was conducted
to investigate the response of the model to different
patterns of environmental conditions, corresponding to
six scenarios of disease conduciveness; and (iii) expected
and simulated epidemics under these scenarios were
compared. In scenarios, the model mobilised existing
quantitative information on downy mildew of grapevine
and generated outputs that are congruent with expected
patterns of potential epidemic. This study indicates that
the model is a reliable tool for simulating accurate and
robust potential epidemics of downy mildew of grapevine
in a scenario analysis. This can have many applications,
such as the understanding of the behaviour of
the pathosystem under climate change or when partial
host resistance is involved.
Lingua originale | English |
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pagine (da-a) | N/A-N/A |
Numero di pagine | 16 |
Rivista | European Journal of Plant Pathology |
DOI | |
Stato di pubblicazione | Pubblicato - 2020 |
Keywords
- Model parameterisation
- Plasmopara viticola
- Potential epidemic analysis
- Simulation modelling
- Vitis vinifera