Segregation between GM and non-GM Inputs in EU Feed and Food Supply Chains: Future Scenarios

This study used a participatory scenario development\r\napproach—more precisely, a two-day exploratory experts-based\r\nworkshop—to identify the key driving forces influencing future\r\nscenarios for the segregation between GM and non-GM inputs\r\nin EU feed and food supply chains, to investigate plausible alternative\r\nscenarios, and to discuss their potential implications on\r\nsupply-chain actors. Twenty supply-chain stakeholders from\r\nacross Europe with key positions in associations, private companies,\r\nuniversities, or EU institutions took part in the workshop.\r\nA medium-term time horizon (2022) was used. The drivers\r\nresulting from the discussion were first clustered and then\r\nranked by impact and uncertainty, allowing the identification of\r\nthe two key driving forces—‘regulatory framework’ (more\r\nenabling or restrictive than the current regulations) and ‘consumer’s\r\nperception of GMOs’ (more positive or negative than\r\nthe present one). According to stakeholders, a stricter policy on\r\nGMOs in Europe might end up with increased segregation costs\r\nfor supply-chain actors, a reduced international competitiveness\r\nof important sectors, and an uncertain long-term economic sustainability\r\nof the niche markets for certified non-GM food products.