TY - JOUR
T1 - SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy
AU - Giovanetti, Marta
AU - Cella, Eleonora
AU - Benedetti, Francesca
AU - Rife Magalis, Brittany
AU - Fonseca, Vagner
AU - Fabris, Silvia
AU - Campisi, Giovanni
AU - Ciccozzi, Alessandra
AU - Angeletti, Silvia
AU - Borsetti, Alessandra
AU - Tambone, Vittoradolfo
AU - Sagnelli, Caterina
AU - Pascarella, Stefano
AU - Riva, Alberto
AU - Ceccarelli, Giancarlo
AU - Marcello, Alessandro
AU - Azarian, Taj
AU - Wilkinson, Eduan
AU - De Oliveira, Tulio
AU - Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior
AU - Cauda, Roberto
AU - Caruso, Arnaldo
AU - Dean, Natalie E.
AU - Browne, Cameron
AU - Lourenco, Jose
AU - Salemi, Marco
AU - Zella, Davide
AU - Ciccozzi, Massimo
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.Giovanetti et al. examine SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. They present evidence to suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may influence vaccination programmes.
AB - We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.Giovanetti et al. examine SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. They present evidence to suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may influence vaccination programmes.
KW - SARS-CoV-2 shifting
KW - SARS-CoV-2 shifting
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10807/229714
U2 - 10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0
DO - 10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0
M3 - Article
SN - 2399-3642
VL - 4
SP - 1
EP - 9
JO - Communications Biology
JF - Communications Biology
ER -
