Role of Rain in the Spore Dispersal of Fungal Pathogens Associated with Grapevine Trunk Diseases

Grapevine trunk diseases are caused by a complex of fungi that belong to different taxa, which produce different spore types and have different spore dispersal mechanisms. It is commonly accepted that rainfall plays a key role in spore dispersal, but there is conflicting information in the literature on the relationship between rain and spore trapping in aerobiology studies. We conducted a systematic literature review, extracted quantitative data from published papers, and used the pooled data for Bayesian analysis of the effect of rain on spore trapping. We selected 17 papers covering 95 studies and 8,778 trapping periods, concerning a total of 26 fungal taxa causing Botryosphaeria dieback (BD), Esca complex (EC), and Eutypa dieback (ED). Results confirmed the role of rain in the spore dispersal of these fungi but revealed differences among the different fungi. Rain was a good predictor of spore trapping for ED (AUROC = 0.820) and BD (0.766) but not for the ascomycetes involved in EC (0.569) and not for the only basidiomycetes, Fomitiporella viticola, studied as for spore discharge (AUROC not significant). Prediction of spore trapping was more accurate for negative prognosis than for positive prognosis; a rain cutoff of $0.2 mm provided an overall accuracy of $0.61 for correct prognoses. Spores trapped in rainless periods accounted for only <10% of the total spores. Our analysis had some drawbacks, which were mainly caused by knowledge gaps and limited data availability; these drawbacks are discussed to facilitate further research.