Risk factors of dementia in a cohort of individuals with mild cognitive impairment in the Italian Interceptor project

Background: The Italian Interceptor project is aimed at identifying a prodromal dementia phase and developing a nationwide organizational model. This study compares the sociodemographic and neuropsychological characteristics of mild cognitive impairment non-converters (MCI-NC) and MCI-converters (MCI-C) to dementia, including Alzheimer's disease (AD), enrolled during the Interceptor project. Methods: Sociodemographic, clinical, and neuropsychological data of MCI individuals were collected at baseline (December 2018 to October 2020) and every six-month follow-up visit for 3 years. Logistic regression and Random Forest classifier were used to describe the study population. Results: From 356 participants, 104 were MCI-C, whereas 252 were MCI-NC. Compared to MCI-NC, MCI-C were predominantly female (p = 0.020), older (p < 0.001), and more cognitively impaired (p < 0.001). Higher physical activity was protective for progression (p < 0.001), but no difference was observed for smoking exposure (p = 0.312) between the two groups. Similar results were found for AD individuals compared to MCI-C/non-AD. The ROC curve based on a Random Forest classifier distinguishing MCI-C from MCI-NC showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.7347. Conclusions: Our findings confirm previous evidence in literature and may increase the insight on dementia pathology and help in defining intervention strategies to prevent or slow down disease progression.