Reinforced urn processes for credit risk models

Stefano Peluso, Antonietta Mira, Pietro Muliere

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in rivistaArticolo in rivista

7 Citazioni (Scopus)


We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model to estimate rating migration matrices and default probabilities using the reinforced urn processes (RUP) introduced in Muliere et. al (2000). The estimated default probability becomes our prior information in a parametric model for the prediction of the number of bankruptcies, with the only assumption of exchangeability within rating classes. The Polya urn construction of the transition matrix justifies a Beta distributed de Finetti measure. Dependence among the processes is introduced through the dependence among the default probabilities, with the Bivariate Beta Distribution proposed in Olkin and Liu (2003) and its multivariate generalization.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)1-12
Numero di pagine12
RivistaJournal of Econometrics
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2015


  • Default rate estimation
  • Multivariate Beta distribution
  • Polya urn
  • Rating migration matrix estimation
  • Reinforced urn processes


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