Regional Trends in Births During the COVID-19 Crisis in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain: Exploring Associations with Economic Factors and Excess Mortality

Early evidence shows mixed effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on births in Europe. This research note compares pre-pandemic trends in the general fertility rate (GFR) at the regional level in the four European countries with the largest populations—France, Germany, Italy, and Spain—with those observed after the onset of the pandemic. It also explores the relationship between changes in GFR during the pandemic and factors such as COVID-19-related deaths, changes in labour market characteristics, and shifts in the population at risk of poverty following the pandemic’s onset. We collected regional data on monthly births from January 2018 to December 2021 from national statistical offices, with additional data from Eurostat. Our analysis included two sets of regressions. First, regional-level fixed effects linear regression models for monthly GFRs were run separately for each country to estimate the effects of three pandemic periods for each region. The resulting coefficients of the pandemic periods were then integrated into a weighted linear regression as the dependent variable, including regional factors such as changes in labour market characteristics, risk of poverty, and excess mortality as regressors. The results highlight within-country variations in birth rate changes following the pandemic, with a particular association between declining birth rates and increased youth unemployment.