Quo Vadis Terra? The future of globalization between trade and war

In this work we discuss how the development of geopolitical confrontation between Eastern and Western blocs will affect globalization after the end of the hyper-globalization era. The debate on these issues is developing by the day and the perspective of an increasingly fragmented world is more and more real. However, global supply chains and global financial markets and flows are not going to disappear overnight. What is developing is a new form of globalization, with also a new set-up in the relationship between the State and large corporations. This work is divided in two parts. The first deals with the trade dimension, where we discuss the changing geometry of international trade and the connection between growth and the balance of payments; then we analyse what are the weak spots of the two blocs and the resulting strategies. The second part deepens the military dimension that is growingly mixed up with economic issues. We discuss some general aspects of military economics, the US military industrial base and their military-entertainment complex; then we discuss the equivalent base in Europe and, finally, how the World War II succeeded in rapidly and totally overhaul US economy as an example for Europe in the next future. In the conclusions, we discuss the main characteristics of the China-United States relationship and the three policies that must be blocked as soon as possible to prevent the sliding towards a new world war.