Problemi di legittimità interna, impasse nel negoziato sul nucleare e “sguardo a Est”: l’Iran dal ritiro statunitense dal JCPOA alle proteste del 2022

This article explores Iran's international posture since 2018 when the United States unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Facing a new phase of economic and political confrontation with the United States, unable to keep the JCPOA alive with the remaining parties and thus continue trade with Europe, Tehran accelerated its 'look to the East policy' and strengthened economic, military and security ties with Asian countries, mainly China, Russia, and Central Asian republics. The new positioning in the international arena, but also Iran's decision to supply drones to Russia during the war in Ukraine, have limited the new negotiations for Iran's nuclear program and brought the JCPOA one step closer to its demise. Meanwhile, popular protests erupted in Iran to challenge the malfunctioning economy, high cost of living, and widespread poverty. The government of Ebrahim Raisi demonstrates the significant loss of state legitimacy, not only because of the low turnout during his elections in 2021 but mainly because of recurring and widespread popular demonstrations. Those that broke out in September 2022 and were led by young women highlighted extensive social dissatisfaction with the system and its rulers. Instead of demanding gradual reforms, young Iranians questioned the foundations of the Islamic Republic and called for its downfall. The internal challenge to the legitimacy of the state, the long-standing impasse over the nuclear talks, and the 'look to the East' policy are the three main aspects that characterized Iran from May 2018 to the end of 2022 and will be presented and discussed in this article.