Premium risk net of reinsurance: From short-term to medium-term assessment

Solvency II requirements introduced new issues for actuarial risk management in non-life insurance, challenging the market to have a consciousness of its own risk profile, and also investigating the sensitivity of the solvency ratio depending on the insurance risks and technical results on either a short-term and medium-term perspective. For this aim, in the present paper, a partial internal model for premium risk is developed for three multi-line non-life insurers, and the impact of some different business mixes is analyzed. Furthermore, the risk-mitigation and profitability impact of reinsurance in the premium risk model are introduced, and a global framework for a feasible application of this model consistent with a medium-term analysis is provided. Numerical results are also figured out with evidence of various effects for several portfolios and reinsurance arrangements, pointing out the main reasons for these differences.