Prediction of Functional and Anatomic Progression in Lamellar Macular Holes

Purpose: To use artificial intelligence to identify imaging biomarkers for anatomic and functional progression of lamellar macular hole (LMH) and elaborate a deep learning (DL) model based on OCT and OCT angiography (OCTA) for prediction of visual acuity (VA) loss in untreated LMHs. Design: Multicentric retrospective observational study. Participants: Patients aged >18 years diagnosed with idiopathic LMHs with availability of good quality OCT and OCTA acquisitions at baseline and a follow-up >2 years were recruited. Methods: A DL model based on soft voting of 2 separate models (OCT and OCTA-based respectively) was trained for identification of cases with VA loss >5 ETDRS letters (attributable to LMH progression only) during a 2year follow-up. Biomarkers of anatomic and functional progression of LMH were evaluated with regression analysis, feature learning (support vector machine [SVM] model), and visualization maps. Main Outcome Measures: Ellipsoid zone (EZ) damage, volumetric tissue loss (TL), vitreopapillary adhesion (VPA), epiretinal proliferation, central macular thickness (CMT), parafoveal vessel density (VD) and vessel length density (VLD) of retinal capillary plexuses, choriocapillaris (CC), and flow deficit density (FDD). Results: Functionally progressing LMHs (VA-PROG group, 41/139 eyes [29.5%]) showed higher prevalence of EZ damage, higher volumetric TL, higher prevalence of VPA, lower superficial capillary plexus (SCP), VD and VLD, and higher CC FDD compared with functionally stable LMHs (VA-STABLE group, 98/139 eyes [70.5%]). The DL and SVM models showed 92.5% and 90.5% accuracy, respectively. The best-performing features in the SVM were EZ damage, TL, CC FDD, and parafoveal SCP VD. Epiretinal proliferation and lower CMT were risk factors for anatomic progression only. Conclusions: Deep learning can accurately predict functional progression of untreated LMHs over 2 years. The use of AI might improve our understanding of the natural course of retinal diseases. The integrity of CC and SCP might play an important role in the progression of LMHs.