Purpose Trials that accrue participants on the basis of genetic biomarkers are a powerful means of testing targeted drugs, but they are often complicated by the rarity of the biomarker-positive population. Umbrella trials circumvent this by testing multiple hypotheses to maximize accrual. However, bigger trials have higher chances of conflicting treatment allocations because of the coexistence of multiple actionable alterations; allocation strategies greatly affect the efficiency of enrollment and should be carefully planned on the basis of relative mutation frequencies, leveraging information from large sequencing projects. Methods We developed software named Precision Trial Drawer (PTD) to estimate parameters that are useful for designing precision trials, most importantly, the number of patients needed to molecularly screen (NNMS) and the allocation rule that maximizes patient accrual on the basis of mutation frequency, systematically assigning patients with conflicting allocations to the drug associated with the rarer mutation. We used data from The Cancer Genome Atlas to show their potential in a 10-arm imaginary trial of multiple cancers on the basis of genetic alterations suggested by the past Molecular Analysis for Personalised Therapy (MAP) conference. We validated PTD predictions versus real data from the SHIVA (A Randomized Phase II Trial Comparing Therapy Based on Tumor Molecular Profiling Versus Conventional Therapy in Patients With Refractory Cancer) trial. Results In the MAP imaginary trial, PTD-optimized allocation reduces number of patients needed to molecularly screen by up to 71.8% (3.5 times) compared with nonoptimal trial designs. In the SHIVA trial, PTD correctly predicted the fraction of patients with actionable alterations (33.51% [95% CI, 29.4% to 37.6%] in imaginary v 32.92% [95% CI, 28.2% to 37.6%] expected) and allocation to specific treatment groups (RAS/MEK, PI3K/mTOR, or both). Conclusion PTD correctly predicts crucial parameters for the design of multiarm genetic biomarker-driven trials. PTD is available as a package in the R programming language and as an open-access Web-based app. It represents a useful resource for the community of precision oncology trialists.
- genomics-driven trials in oncology