TY - JOUR
T1 - On boom-bust stock market dynamics, animal spirits, and the destabilizing nature of temporarily attracting virtual fixed points
AU - Gardini, Laura
AU - Radi, Davide
AU - Schmitt, Noemi
AU - Sushko, Iryna
AU - Westerhoff, Frank
PY - 2024
Y1 - 2024
N2 - We propose a stock market model with chartists, fundamentalists and market makers. Chartists chase stock price trends, fundamentalists bet on mean reversion, and market makers adjust stock prices to reflect current excess demand. Fundamentalists' perception of the stock market's fundamental value is subject to animal spirits. As long as the stock market is relatively stable, fundamentalists neutrally believe in a normal fundamental value. However, fundamentalists optimistically (pessimistically) believe in a high (low) fundamental value when the stock market rises (falls) sharply. Our framework may produce boom-bust stock market dynamics that coevolve with waves of optimism and pessimism for parameter settings that would ensure globally stable stock market dynamics in the absence of animal spirits. Responsible for such a surprising outcome is the destabilizing nature of temporarily attracting virtual fixed points, brought about by animal spirits.
AB - We propose a stock market model with chartists, fundamentalists and market makers. Chartists chase stock price trends, fundamentalists bet on mean reversion, and market makers adjust stock prices to reflect current excess demand. Fundamentalists' perception of the stock market's fundamental value is subject to animal spirits. As long as the stock market is relatively stable, fundamentalists neutrally believe in a normal fundamental value. However, fundamentalists optimistically (pessimistically) believe in a high (low) fundamental value when the stock market rises (falls) sharply. Our framework may produce boom-bust stock market dynamics that coevolve with waves of optimism and pessimism for parameter settings that would ensure globally stable stock market dynamics in the absence of animal spirits. Responsible for such a surprising outcome is the destabilizing nature of temporarily attracting virtual fixed points, brought about by animal spirits.
KW - animal spirits
KW - chartists and fundamentalists
KW - virtual fixed points
KW - piecewise-linear discontinuous maps
KW - Stock market dynamics
KW - periodic attractors
KW - animal spirits
KW - chartists and fundamentalists
KW - virtual fixed points
KW - piecewise-linear discontinuous maps
KW - Stock market dynamics
KW - periodic attractors
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10807/299719
U2 - 10.1017/S1365100524000439
DO - 10.1017/S1365100524000439
M3 - Article
SN - 1365-1005
SP - 1
EP - 31
JO - Macroeconomic Dynamics
JF - Macroeconomic Dynamics
ER -