On boom-bust stock market dynamics, animal spirits, and the destabilizing nature of temporarily attracting virtual fixed points

Laura Gardini, Davide Radi, Noemi Schmitt, Iryna Sushko, Frank Westerhoff

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in rivistaArticolo in rivista

Abstract

We propose a stock market model with chartists, fundamentalists and market makers. Chartists chase stock price trends, fundamentalists bet on mean reversion, and market makers adjust stock prices to reflect current excess demand. Fundamentalists' perception of the stock market's fundamental value is subject to animal spirits. As long as the stock market is relatively stable, fundamentalists neutrally believe in a normal fundamental value. However, fundamentalists optimistically (pessimistically) believe in a high (low) fundamental value when the stock market rises (falls) sharply. Our framework may produce boom-bust stock market dynamics that coevolve with waves of optimism and pessimism for parameter settings that would ensure globally stable stock market dynamics in the absence of animal spirits. Responsible for such a surprising outcome is the destabilizing nature of temporarily attracting virtual fixed points, brought about by animal spirits.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)1-31
Numero di pagine31
RivistaMacroeconomic Dynamics
DOI
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2024

Keywords

  • animal spirits
  • chartists and fundamentalists
  • virtual fixed points
  • piecewise-linear discontinuous maps
  • Stock market dynamics
  • periodic attractors

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