Multicenter external validation of two malignancy risk prediction models in patients undergoing 18F-FDG-PET for solitary pulmonary nodule evaluation

Anna Rita Larici, S Perandini, GA Soardi, A del Ciello, G Rizzardi, A Solazzo, L Mancino, F Zeraj, M Bernhart, M Signorini, M Motton, S Montemezzi

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in rivistaArticolo in rivista

10 Citazioni (Scopus)

Abstract

To achieve multicentre external validation of the Herder and Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) models.Two hundred and fifty-nine solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) collected from four major hospitals which underwent 18-FDG-PET characterization were included in this multicentre retrospective study. The Herder model was tested on all available lesions (group A). A subgroup of 180 SPNs (group B) was used to provide unbiased comparison between the Herder and BIMC models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed to assess diagnostic accuracy. Decision analysis was performed by adopting the risk threshold stated in British Thoracic Society (BTS) guidelines.Unbiased comparison performed In Group B showed a ROC AUC for the Herder model of 0.807 (95 % CI 0.742-0.862) and for the BIMC model of 0.822 (95 % CI 0.758-0.875).Both the Herder and the BIMC models were proven to accurately predict the risk of malignancy when tested on a large multicentre external case series. The BIMC model seems advantageous on the basis of a more favourable decision analysis.aEuro cent The Herder model showed a ROC AUC of 0.807 on 180 SPNs.aEuro cent The BIMC model showed a ROC AUC of 0.822 on 180 SPNs.aEuro cent Decision analysis is more favourable to the BIMC model.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)2042-2046
Numero di pagine5
RivistaEuropean Radiology
Volume27
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2017

Keywords

  • 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography
  • Computed tomography
  • Decision analysis
  • Lung cancer
  • Solid pulmonary nodule

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