Modelling the bioeconomy

Modelling is an important tool to support policy-making. A review of the existing bioeconomy modelling capacity indicates that most models focus on agriculture, forestry, and connected sectors of food, energy, and wood and paper products. Future development of bioeconomy modelling capacities should focus on including bio-based products such as textiles and plastics, and especially chemicals and pharmaceuticals. To address such gaps in existing capacities, the BioMonitor Model Toolbox has been developed; it is composed of five improved bioeconomy models to support policy-makers in executing consistent, coherent, and longer-term strategies with desirable consequences for multiple objectives. Further model development needs to consider key processes such as technological change (or innovation), circularity, consumer behaviour, climate change, and biodiversity. Whereas concepts like circularity could be included in existing models with reasonable effort, other important concepts require the development of new models that build on emerging modelling techniques.