Modelling, predicting and mapping the emergence of aflatoxins in cereals in the EU due to climate change

The impact of climate change has been identified as an emerging issue for food and feed safety (Miraglia et al., 2009). By its mandate to identify emerging risks in food and feed sectors, EFSA’s Emerging Risks Unit has identified changing pattern in mycotoxin occurrence in cereals, maize, wheat and rice, due to climate change as a potential area of concern. A project was recently granted with the following main aims: 1) to identify and screen all factors influencing the growth of A. flavus and A. parasiticus and aflatoxins production in maize, wheat and rice plants; 2) to identify data on climate change and generate climate change scenarios; 3) to develop predictive models for A. flavus and A. parasiticus and aflatoxins production in maize, wheat and rice; 4) to run predictive models with meteorological data obtained by climate change scenarios; 5) to draw maps describing scenarios of fungal and aflatoxins contamination in the selected crops in the pre-harvest stage in the EU; 6) to evaluate the possible increase of future risk for EU population related to the aflatoxins contamination in cereals. The above described activities of the project are organised into 3 work packages devoted to: i) the inventory of available literature, ii) the selection of climate change scenarios, and iii) the modelling and mapping activity. The project officially started on 16 December 2009 and the end is defined at 15 September 2011.