L’enigma del risparmio e l’economia dello sviluppo: l’ipotesi del Ciclo di Vita di Modigliani in Cina

A theoretical, empirical, applied and policy-oriented work. Thanks to this method of research Franco Modigliani elaborated the Life Cycle Hypotesis (LCH). He then applied the hypotesis to the specific issue of Chinese savings, with two works published by Modigliani and Cao in 1996 and 2004; they’re still an important guideline for researchers. As the LCH suggests, the interactions between economic growth, income level and demographic changes can strongly influence personal savings rate. In China, various institutional factors have contributed to creating a high propensity for personal savings; If it does not fully explain the high rate of household savings, it constitutes in any case an important determinant. To examine this theme, we introduce some considerations on the problematic but fruitful relationship of Modigliani with Keynesian theory. We look at his analysis of savings and at the Life Cycle Hypothesis, for a long time subjected to empirical verification. We then resume Modigliani's contributions to savings in China, also with attention to the heuristic value of the same in the current phase. Some conclusive reflections trace a possible proximity between Modigliani's analysis of savings and development economics