The key idea of this paper is that the relative price of primary commodities in terms of manufactured goods affects the likelihood of actual conflicts. The empirical application focused on a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 1995-2006. Results are not fully conclusive. However, there is robust evidence that a proxy of world price of manufactured goods is negatively associated with the likelihood of a civil war. The conclusion would be that an increase in world prices of manufactured goods would make civil wars less likely.
|Rivista||Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy|
|Stato di pubblicazione||Pubblicato - 2010|
- butter and guns
- international relative prices