Heuristics vs. Biases in S&OP: an Insight into the Decision Making Process of Emotionally Involved Planners

Valeria Belvedere, Paul Goodwin

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in libroContributo a convegno

Abstract

In S&OP, planners have to decide how much to produce on the basis of expected future sales. Such forecasts are often made through a process of judgmental adjustment on the “anchor” provided by a statistical algorithm. However, these adjustments are often inefficient. This paper aims at testing through an experiment whether the involvement of the forecasters with the product category and their emotional reaction to particular products can drive their accuracy. It was found that forecasters who liked particular products tended to suffer from significant optimism bias. However, the bias was reduced when forecasters also had high involvement with the product category.
Lingua originaleEnglish
Titolo della pubblicazione ospite20th Euroma Conference - Operations Management at the Heart of the Recovery
Pagine1-10
Numero di pagine10
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2013
Evento20th Euroma Conference - Operations Management at the Heart of the Recovery - Dublino
Durata: 7 giu 201312 giu 2013

Convegno

Convegno20th Euroma Conference - Operations Management at the Heart of the Recovery
CittàDublino
Periodo7/6/1312/6/13

Keywords

  • Experiment
  • Forecasting
  • Planning

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