Competing interests over land are sharply rising worldwide; they are pushed by several factors, including peri-urban dynamics and growing commercialisation of land. Through a quasi- experimental design based on spatially disaggregated data, the analysis explores the effect of peri-urbanisation processes and large-scale land acquisitions on the risk of organised violence. The results, confirmed throughout several model specifications and robustness checks, provide evidence that peri-urbanisation processes are strongly associated with a higher risk of experiencing events of organised violence. The likelihood of being the arena of such events is even higher when large acquisitions are concluded within peri-urban areas. Urbanisation processes and large land acquisitions should therefore be framed within a comprehensive strategy grounded on inclusive urban planning and land access safeguards, in order to minimise the risk that land access insecurity may be translated into violence.
- conflict events
- large-scale land acquisitions
- spatial analysis