Gemelli decision tree Algorithm to Predict the need for home monitoring or hospitalization of confirmed and unconfirmed COVID-19 patients (GAP-Covid19): preliminary results from a retrospective cohort study

  • Giuseppe Vetrugno
  • , Patrizia Laurenti
  • , Francesco Franceschi
  • , F Foti*
  • , F D'Ambrosio
  • , M Cicconi
  • , D I LA Milia
  • , M Di Pumpo
  • , E Carini
  • , D Pascucci
  • , Stefania Boccia
  • , R Pastorino
  • , Gianfranco Damiani
  • , F De-Giorgio
  • , Antonio Oliva
  • , N Nicolotti
  • , A Cambieri
  • , R Ghisellini
  • , Rita Murri
  • , G Sabatelli
  • M Musolino, Antonio Gasbarrini, L Montini, Luca Miele, Gemelli-Against-Covid Group, Rome, Italy V. Abbate, N. Acampora, Giovanni Addolorato, F. Agostini, M. E. Ainora, K. Akacha, E. Amato, F. Andreani, G. An- driollo, M. G. Annetta, B. E. Annicchiarico, Massimo Antonelli, G. Antonucci, G. M. Anzellotti, A. Armuzzi, F. Baldi, I. Barattucci, C. Barillaro, F. Barone, Rocco Domenico Alfonso Bellantone, A. Bellieni, G. Bello, A. Benicchi, F. Benvenuto, L. Berardini, F. Berloco, R. Bernabei, A. Bianchi, D. G. Biasucci, L. M. Biasucci, S. Bibbò, A. Bini, A. Bisanti, Federico Biscetti, M. G. Bocci, N. Bonadia, F. Bongiovanni, A. Borghetti, G. Bosco, S. Bosello, V. Bove, G. Bramato, V. Brandi, T. Bruni, C. Bruno, D. Bruno, M. C. Bungaro, A. Buonomo, L. Burzo, A. Calabrese, M. R. Calvello, C. Cambise, G. Cammà, M. Candelli, G. Canistro, A. Cantanale, G. Capalbo, L. Capaldi, E. Capone, E. Ca- pristo, L. Carbone, S. Cardone, S. Carelli, A. Carfì, A. Carnicelli, C. Caruso, F. A. Casciaro, L. Catalano, P. Cat- tani, R. Cauda, A. L. Cecchini, L. Cerrito, M. Cesarano, A. Chiarito, Rossella Cianci, S. Cicchinelli, A. Ciccullo, M. Cicetti, F. Ciciarello, Antonella Cingolani, M. C. Cipriani, M. L. Consalvo, G. Coppola, G. M. Corbo, A. Corsello, F. Cos- tante, M. Costanzi, Marcello Covino, D. Crupi, Salvatore Lucio Cutuli, S. D’Addio, A. D’Alessandro, M. E. D’Alfonso, E. D’Ange- lo, F. D’Aversa, Fernando Damiano, G. M. De Berardinis, T. De Cunzo, D. K. De Gaetano, G. De Luca, G. De Matteis, Gennaro De Pascale, P. De Santis, M. De Siena, F. De Vito, V. Del Gatto, P. Del Giacomo, F. Del Zompo, A. M. Dell’Anna, D. Della Polla, L. Di Gialleonardo, Simona Di Giambenedetto, R. Di Luca, L. Di Maurizio, M. Di Muro, A. Dusina, D. Eleuteri, A. Esperide, D. Fachechi, D. Faliero, C. Fal- siroli, M. Fantoni, A. Fedele, D. Feliciani, C. Ferrante, G. Ferrone, R. Festa, M. C. Fiore, Andrea Flex, E. Forte, A. Francesconi, L. Franza, B. Funaro, M. Fuorlo, D. Fusco, M. Gabrielli, Eleonora Gaetani, C. Galletta, A. Gallo, G. Gam- bassi, M. Garcovich, I. Gasparrini, S. Gelli, A. Giampi- etro, L. Gigante, G. Giuliano, G. Giuliano, B. Giupponi, Elisa Gremese, Domenico Luca Grieco, M. Guerrera, V. Guglielmi, C. Guidone, A. Gullì, A. Iaconelli, A. Iafrati, Gianluca Ianiro, A. Iaquinta, M. Impagnatiello, R. Inchingolo, E. Intini, Raffaele Iorio, I. M. Izzi, T. Jovanovic, C. Kadhim, R. La Mac- chia, Francesco Landi, G. Landi, R. Landi, R. Landolfi, M. Leo, P. M. Leone, L. Levantesi, A. Liguori, Rosa Liperoti, M. M. Lizzio, M. R. Lo Monaco, P. Locantore, F. Lombardi, G. Lombardi, L. Lopetuso, V. Loria, A. R. Losito, B. P. L. Mothanje, F. Macagno, N. Macerola, G. Maggi, G. Mai- uro, F. Mancarella, F. Mangiola, A. Manno, D. Marchesi- ni, G. M. Maresca, G. Marrone, I. Martis, A. M. Martone, Emanuele Marzetti, C. Mattana, M. V. Matteo, R. Maviglia, A. Mazzarella, C. Memoli, Luca Miele, A. Migneco, I. Migni- ni, A. Milani, D. Milardi, M. Montalto, G. Montemurro, F. Monti, Luca Montini, T. C. Morena, V. Mora, C. Morretta, D. Moschese, C. A. Murace, M. Murdolo, M. Napoli, E. Nardella, G. Natalello, D. Natalini, S. M. Navarra, A. Nesci, A. Nicoletti, R. Nicoletti, T. F. Nicoletti, R. Nicolò, E. C. Nista, E. Nuzzo, M. Oggiano, V. Ojetti, F. Cosimo Pagano, G. Paiano, C. Pais, F. Pallavicini, A. Palombo, F. Paolillo, A. Papa, D. Papanice, L. G. Papparella, M. Para- tore, G. Parrinello, G. Pasciuto, P. Pasculli, G. Pecorini, S. Perniola, E. Pero, L. Petricca, M. Petrucci, C. Picarel- li, A. Piccioni, A. Piccolo, E. Piervincenzi, G. Pignataro, R. Pignataro, G. Pintaudi, L. Pisapia, M. Pizzoferrato, F. Pizzolante, Roberto Pola, C. Policola, M. Pompili, F. Pontecor- vi, V. Pontecorvi, Francesca Romana Ponziani, V. Popolla, E. Porced- du, A. Porfidia, L. M. Porro, A. Potenza, F. Pozzana, G. Privitera, D. Pugliese, G. Pulcini, S. Racco, F. Raffaelli, V. Ramunno, G. L. Rapaccini, Luca Richeldi, E. Rinninella, S. Rocchi, B. Romanò, S. Romano, F. Rosa, L. Rossi, R. Rossi, E. Rossini, E. Rota, F. Rovedi, C. Rubino, G. Rumi, A. Russo, L. Sabia, A. Salerno, M. Sali, S. Salini, L. Salvatore, D. Samori, C. Sandroni, M. Sanguinetti, R. Santangelo, L. Santarelli, P. Santini, D. Santolamazza, A. Santoliquido, F. Santopaolo, M. C. Santoro, F. Sardeo, C. Sarnari, A. Saviano, L. Saviano, F. Scaldaferri, R. Scarascia, T. Schepis, F. Schiavello, G. Scoppettuolo, D. Sedda, F. Sessa, L. Sestito, C. Settanni, M. Siciliano, V. Siciliano, R. Sicuranza, B. Simeoni, J. Simonetti, A. Smargiassi, P. M. Soave, C. Sonnino, D. Staiti, C. Stella, L. Stella, E. Stival, E. Taddei, R. Talerico, E. Tamburel- lo, E. Tamburrini, E. S. Tanzarella, E. Tarascio, C. Tarli, A. Tersali, P. Tilli, J. Timpano, E. Torelli, F. Torrini, M. Tosato, A. Tosoni, L. Tricoli, M. Tritto, M. Tumbarello, A. M. Tummolo, M. S. Vallecoccia, F. Valletta, F. Varone, F. Vassalli, G. Ventura, L. Verardi, L. Vetrone, E. Vis- conti, F. Visconti, A. Viviani, R. Zaccaria, C. Zaccone, C. Zanza, L. Zelano, L. Zileri Dal Verme, G. Zuccalà
*Autore corrispondente per questo lavoro

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in rivistaArticolopeer review

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To develop a deep learning-based decision tree for the primary care setting, to stratify adult patients with confirmed and unconfirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to predict the need for hospitalization or home monitoring.PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study on data from patients admitted to a COVID hospital in Rome, Italy, between 5 March 2020 and 5 June 2020. A confirmed case was defined as a patient with a positive nasopharyngeal RT-PCR test result, while an unconfirmed case had negative results on repeated swabs. Patients' medical history and clinical, laboratory and radiological findings were collected, and the dataset was used to train a predictive model for COVID-19 severity.RESULTS: Data of 198 patients were included in the study. Twenty-eight (14.14%) had mild disease, 62 (31.31%) had moderate disease, 64 (32.32%) had severe disease, and 44 (22.22%) had critical disease. The G(2) value assessed the contribution of each collected value to decision tree building. On this basis, SpO2 (%) with a cut point at 92 was chosen for the optimal first split. Therefore, the decision tree was built using values maximizing G(2) and LogWorth. After the tree was built, the correspondence between inputs and outcomes was validated.CONCLUSIONS: We developed a machine learning-based tool that is easy to understand and apply. It provides good discrimination in stratifying confirmed and unconfirmed COVID-19 patients with different prognoses in every context. Our tool might allow general practitioners visiting patients at home to decide whether the patient needs to be hospitalized.
Lingua originaleInglese
pagine (da-a)2785-2794
Numero di pagine10
RivistaEuropean Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences
Volume25
Numero di pubblicazione6
DOI
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2021

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Farmacologia (medica)

Keywords

  • Aged
  • Algorithms
  • COVID-19
  • COVID-19 Testing
  • Cohort Studies
  • Community-based care
  • Computer-Assisted
  • Decision Making
  • Decision Trees
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • General practitioners
  • Home Care Services
  • Hospitalization
  • Humans
  • Italy
  • Machine Learning
  • Machine learning
  • Male
  • Monitoring
  • Physiologic
  • Primary health care
  • Prognosis
  • Retrospective Studies
  • SARS-CoV-2

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