TY - JOUR
T1 - Fleeting extinction? Unraveling the persistence of noise traders in financial markets with learning and replacement
AU - Gerotto, Luca
AU - Pellizzari, Paolo
AU - Tolotti, Marco
PY - 2025
Y1 - 2025
N2 - We describe an agent-based model of a financial market where agents can learn whether to buy costly information on returns, to use noise as if it were information, or to disregard any signals. We show that while learning alone drives all noise traders to extinction in stationary populations, allowing for small rates of replacement of existing agents with new ones suffices to generate substantial levels of persistent noise trading, with the equilibrium share of agents using irrelevant news reaching double digits. Remarkably, the presence of noise traders, when replacement is realistically considered, inflates the share of agents who use costly information relative to the benchmark scenario without replacement.
AB - We describe an agent-based model of a financial market where agents can learn whether to buy costly information on returns, to use noise as if it were information, or to disregard any signals. We show that while learning alone drives all noise traders to extinction in stationary populations, allowing for small rates of replacement of existing agents with new ones suffices to generate substantial levels of persistent noise trading, with the equilibrium share of agents using irrelevant news reaching double digits. Remarkably, the presence of noise traders, when replacement is realistically considered, inflates the share of agents who use costly information relative to the benchmark scenario without replacement.
KW - Agent-based modeling
KW - Asymmetric information
KW - Bounded rationality
KW - Information aggregation
KW - Learning
KW - Agent-based modeling
KW - Asymmetric information
KW - Bounded rationality
KW - Information aggregation
KW - Learning
UR - https://publicatt.unicatt.it/handle/10807/310807
UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=86000351674&origin=inward
UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?partnerID=HzOxMe3b&scp=86000351674&origin=inward
U2 - 10.1007/s00191-025-00892-y
DO - 10.1007/s00191-025-00892-y
M3 - Article
SN - 0936-9937
VL - 35
SP - 355
EP - 379
JO - Journal of Evolutionary Economics
JF - Journal of Evolutionary Economics
IS - N/A
ER -