Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: News From A Non-linear World

Giovanni Caggiano, Efrem Castelnuovo, Valentina Colombo, Gabriela Nodari

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in rivistaArticolo in rivista

59 Citazioni (Scopus)


We estimate non-linear VARs to assess to what extent fiscal spending multipliers are countercyclical in the US. We deal with the issue of non-fundamentalness due to fiscal foresight by appealing to sums of revisions of expectations of fiscal expenditures. This measure of anticipated fiscal shocks is shown to carry valuable information about future dynamics of public spending. Results based on generalised impulse responses suggest that fiscal spending multipliers in recessions are greater than one, but not statistically larger than those in expansions. However, non-linearities arise when focusing on 'extreme' events, that is, deep recessions versus strong expansionary periods.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)746-776
Numero di pagine31
RivistaEconomic Journal
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2015


  • Fiscal Policy
  • Multipliers


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