TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic increasing returns and innovation diffusion: bringing Polya Urn processes to the empirical data
AU - Stepanova, Elena
AU - Dosi, Giovanni
AU - Moneta, Alessio
PY - 2019
Y1 - 2019
N2 - The patterns of innovation diffusion are well approximated by the logistic curves. This is the robust empirical fact confirmed by many studies in innovations dynamics. Here, we show that the logistic pattern of innovation diffusion can be replicated by the time-dependent stochastic process with positive feedbacks along the diffusion trajectory. The dynamic increasing returns process is modelled by Polya Urns. So far, Urn models have been mostly used to study the [path-dependent] limit properties. On the contrary, this work focuses on the transient [finite time] properties studying the conditions under which urn models capture the logistic trajectories which often track empirical diffusion process. As examples, we calibrate the process to match several cases of diffusion of motor ships in European countries.
AB - The patterns of innovation diffusion are well approximated by the logistic curves. This is the robust empirical fact confirmed by many studies in innovations dynamics. Here, we show that the logistic pattern of innovation diffusion can be replicated by the time-dependent stochastic process with positive feedbacks along the diffusion trajectory. The dynamic increasing returns process is modelled by Polya Urns. So far, Urn models have been mostly used to study the [path-dependent] limit properties. On the contrary, this work focuses on the transient [finite time] properties studying the conditions under which urn models capture the logistic trajectories which often track empirical diffusion process. As examples, we calibrate the process to match several cases of diffusion of motor ships in European countries.
KW - Business, Management and Accounting (all)
KW - Management of Technology and Innovation
KW - Polya Urn
KW - dynamic increasing returns
KW - innovation diffusion
KW - logistic diffusion pattern
KW - Business, Management and Accounting (all)
KW - Management of Technology and Innovation
KW - Polya Urn
KW - dynamic increasing returns
KW - innovation diffusion
KW - logistic diffusion pattern
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10807/128551
UR - http://www.tandf.co.uk/journals/titles/13662716.asp
U2 - 10.1080/13662716.2018.1444978
DO - 10.1080/13662716.2018.1444978
M3 - Article
SN - 1366-2716
VL - 26
SP - 461
EP - 478
JO - Industry and Innovation
JF - Industry and Innovation
ER -