Abstract
The global climate is changing. Much research has already been carried out to assess the potential
impacts of climate change on plant physiology. However, effects on plant disease have not yet
been deeply studied. In this paper, an empirical disease model for primary infection of downy
mildew on grapevine was elaborated and used to project future disease dynamics under climate
change. The disease model was run under the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM)
and future scenarios of downy mildew primary outbreaks were generated at several sites all over
the word for three future dates: 2030, 2050, 2080. Results suggested a potential general advance
of first disease outbreaks, both in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, for all three future
decades considered. The advance is predicted to be from about a minimum of one day in South
Africa in 2030 to a maximum of 28 days in Chile and China in 2080. The advance in the outbreak
time could lead to more severe infections, due to the polycyclic nature of the pathogen. Therefore,
changes in the timing and frequency of fungicide treatments could be expected in the future, with
a possible increase in the costs of disease management.
Lingua originale | English |
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pagine (da-a) | 317-326 |
Numero di pagine | 10 |
Rivista | BULLETIN OEPP |
Stato di pubblicazione | Pubblicato - 2007 |
Evento | EPPO conference on Computer aids for plant protection" - Wageningen, Tne Netherlands Durata: 17 ott 2006 → 19 ott 2006 |
Keywords
- Plasmopara viticola
- global change
- modelling