COVID-19: R0 is lower where outbreak is larger

Simona Gamba, Pietro Battiston

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in rivistaArticolo in rivistapeer review

Abstract

We use daily data from Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the COVID-19 outbreak, to calibrate a SIR model on each municipality. Municipalities with a higher initial number of cases feature a lower rate of diffusion, not attributable to herd immunity: there is a robust and strongly significant negative correlation between the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) and the initial outbreak size. This represents novel evidence of the prevalence-response elasticity in a cross-sectional setting, characterized by a same health system and homogeneous social distancing regulations. By ruling out alternative explanations, we conclude that a higher number of cases causes changes of behavior, such as a more strict adoption of social distancing measures among the population, that reduce the spread. This finding calls for the distribution of detailed epidemiological data to populations affected by COVID-19 outbreaks.
Lingua originaleEnglish
pagine (da-a)1-29
Numero di pagine29
RivistaHealth Policy
DOI
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2020

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Prevalence-response elasticity
  • basic reproduction number
  • containment
  • social distancing

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