Analisi economica per l’estensione della vaccinazione contro l’influenza agli individui di età 50-64: risparmi sociali e analisi di Budget Impact

Introduction: Every year in Italy FLU causes 5 millions of infected. This causes several productivity losses and costs for hospitalizations and GP visits. Our aim is to quantify the amount of social savings due to the implementation of a FLU vaccination strategy for people aged 50-64 in Italy in order to determine the optimal budget allocation. Methods: The dynamic model InfluSim version 2.0 was used. Then we evaluated the social savings due to the implementation of different strategies for FLU prevention using published data on oseltamvir, zanamvir and vaccine costs and effectiveness. A sensitivity analysis was performed varying the Basic Reproduction Number from 1.68 to 3, consistently with major literature indications and assuming resource consumption to be distributed as a Gamma and Inv Log Normal function. We then performed a budget impact analysis using the Weinstein model. Results: Results showed that the implementation of a vaccination policy in favour of the entire 50-64 year old population brings forth a social saving of 12-15% if compared with the current vaccination policy. Budget impact analysis showed that up to 30% utilization of the vaccine, every share of population coverage is the dominant strategy compared to the use of antivirals. Conclusions: This study is a first example of how to integrate an epidemiological dynamic model with a budget impact analysis. Decision makers are expected to use this type of approach to support their healthcare strategies.