This paper aims to gain new insights into the Italian eco-nomic tendency toward recovery by investigating the Industrial Production Index series (IPI). The trend and cy-clical components of the series are determined using a novel technique which hinges on optimal truncated ideal low‐pass filters. The contributions of the latent components to the IPI series are brought to the fore by a spectrum analyzer that evaluates the spectra of the said components in the bands of interest. The analysis results corroborate that the Italian economy is still subject to cyclical effects that can compro-mise its recovery.
- Business and short cycle analysis
- Cycle modeling and prediction
- Trend‐cycle estimation