Alley Cat or Ally Cat? What the “Italian Tutorial” Tells Us About the Prospects of NATO in an Age of (Apparent) Populism

Since President Trump's second administration began in January 2025, many analysts have expressed understandable concern over the United States' increasingly illiberal turn and its potential implications for NATO's future. Contrary to these widespread fears, this article argues that the alliance's survival is not necessarily in jeopardy. Drawing on the Italian experience—from Berlusconi to Meloni, spanning 1994 to the present—the authors identify an “Italian model” of foreign policy typical of populist radical-right parties (PRRPs). Unlike Viktor Orban's confrontational stance, this model promotes a pragmatic and flexible approach to international relations. They contend that such a model enables a reconfiguration of NATO's vitality, grounded not so much in contemporary liberal norms but rather in what they call “populist Atlanticism.” The article advances a second theoretical claim—that once in power, most European PRRPs tend to “become Italian.” Their foreign policies evolve toward pragmatic compromise, shaped more by structural realities than by individual personalities. This recurring pattern suggests that, under similar conditions, right-wing populist leaders converge toward a form of Atlanticism that balances national sovereignty with strategic alliance commitments. While this model is particularly intuitive for Europe's medium powers, it is also applicable to the United States, which will find it necessary to adopt a moderate and pragmatic populism to preserve its global partnerships. By reframing populist Atlanticism as a potential stabilizing force, this article offers a nuanced understanding of NATO's adaptability in an era of ideological transformation.