Aflatoxin B1 contamination in maize in Europe increases due to climate change.

Climate change has been reported as a driver for emerging food and feed safety issues worldwide and\r\nits expected impact on the presence of mycotoxins in food and feed is of great concern. Aflatoxins\r\nhave the highest acute and chronic toxicity of all mycotoxins; hence, the maximal concentration in\r\nagricultural food and feed products and their commodities is regulated worldwide. The possible change\r\nin patterns of aflatoxin occurrence in crops due to climate change is a matter of concern that may\r\nrequire anticipatory actions. The aim of this study was to predict aflatoxin contamination in maize and\r\nwheat crops, within the next 100 years, under a +2 °C and +5 °C climate change scenario, applying a\r\nmodelling approach. Europe was virtually covered by a net, 50 × 50 km grids, identifying 2254 meshes\r\nwith a central point each. Climate data were generated for each point, linked to predictive models and\r\npredictions were run consequently. Aflatoxin B1 is predicted to become a food safety issue in maize in\r\nEurope, especially in the +2 °C scenario, the most probable scenario of climate change expected for the\r\nnext years. These results represent a supporting tool to reinforce aflatoxin management and to prevent\r\nhuman and animal exposure.