Accounting for model uncertainty in individualized designs for discrete choice experiments

Guido Consonni, Laura Deldossi, Eleonora Saggini

Risultato della ricerca: Contributo in libroContributo a convegno

Abstract

We consider the issue of finding optimal designs for Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE). Currently the optimal design for a DCE is predicated on a specific mixed logit model which represents the probability of choosing a specific alternative in a choice set through a linear predictor combining several factors. Using a unique model represents a major limitation which we overcome by allowing for a collection of different models characterized by distinct linear predictors. In this new setting, model choice becomes a major concern. By maximizing the utility of selecting a choice set - computed as the mutual information between the model indicator and the predicted observation at that set - over alternative choice sets, model discrimination is enhanced. We implement our methodology using a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm suitably tailored to deal with model uncertainty.
Lingua originaleEnglish
Titolo della pubblicazione ospiteCladag 2017. Book of short papers
PagineN/A
Stato di pubblicazionePubblicato - 2017
EventoCLADAG 2017 - Milano
Durata: 13 set 201715 set 2017

Convegno

ConvegnoCLADAG 2017
CittàMilano
Periodo13/9/1715/9/17

Keywords

  • Bayesian sequential design
  • Model discrimination
  • Optimal design

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