Abstract
The uncertainties in the model of an energy distribution system made of a solar panel, a storage energy system and loads (power demanded by the end-users) are investigated, treating the epistemic variables as possibilistic and the aleatory ones as probabilistic. In particular, time-varying probabilistic distributions of the solar irradiation and the power demanded by the end-users is inferred from historical data. Then a computational framework for the joint propagation of both types of uncertainty is applied through the model of the energy distribution system to compute the Expected Energy Not Supplied. © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, London.
| Original language | English |
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| Title of host publication | Safety, Reliability and Risk Analysis: Beyond the Horizon - Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 |
| Pages | 3203-3211 |
| Number of pages | 9 |
| Publication status | Published - 2014 |
| Event | European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 - Amsterdam, nld Duration: 29 Sept 2013 → 2 Oct 2013 |
Conference
| Conference | European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2013 |
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| City | Amsterdam, nld |
| Period | 29/9/13 → 2/10/13 |
Keywords
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality