[Autom. eng. transl.] In this paper we intend to develop a dynamic projection model of the number of disabled people who are confined to a chair, in bed or at home. The confinements represent the most serious category of disability and therefore require long-term assistance (LTC, long-term Care) on an ongoing basis. For this reason, this type of disability absorbs most of the LTC expenditure. The projection model requires prevalence and incidence data of the phenomenon, together with hypotheses on the future trends of disability and mortality of the disabled population. These hypotheses allow the elaboration of a multi-state model for the projection of the disabled population. The quantification of costs related to assistance is very difficult given the fragmentation of expenditure and the high cost component informally supported by families. Therefore, following a hypothesis formulated by Isvap regarding the cost of a LTC social insurance, it has been hypothesised to provide confined disabled people with the same welfare coverage guaranteed by the German mutual societies for the most serious disabilities. Since there are no clear trends regarding the evolution of disability and mortality of the disabled population, the results produced by the model are presented in the most extreme scenario hypotheses, together with those obtained from the scenario that does not foresee changes in trends.
|Translated title of the contribution||[Autom. eng. transl.] A dynamic projection of the number of confined persons and implications for future long-term care needs|
|Number of pages||20|
|Publication status||Published - 2006|
- Long-term care