The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007

Raul Caruso, J Costa, R. Ricciuti

Research output: Working paper


In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherInstitut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB)
Number of pages20
Publication statusPublished - 2012


  • MIlitary rule


Dive into the research topics of 'The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this