The impact of pandemics: revising the Spanish Flu in Italy in light of models’ predictions, and some lessons for the Covid-19 pandemic

We consider some descriptive analysis of the main short- and medium-term economic\r\nindicators in Italy in the aftermath of the Spanish Flu pandemic. We analyse\r\nthem in the light of the main neoclassical macroeconomic models of pandemics.\r\nSince most of the existing economic models about the consequences of a pandemic\r\ndeal the pandemic event merely as a negative labour supply shock, we observe that\r\nsome predictions of the theory about the economic impact of a pandemic seem not\r\nto be confirmed in the case of the Spanish Flu in Italy. In particular, economic indicators\r\nin Italy in the upsurge of the Spanish Flu need to be explained also in light of\r\nthe consequences of the First World War. We use this evidence to discuss the predictions\r\non the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. We stress the importance of putting\r\nthe analysis of the economic consequences of the current pandemic into the appropriate\r\nhistorical context.