The day 100 score predicts moderate to severe cGVHD, transplant mortality, and survival after hematopoietic cell transplantation

The aim of this study was to develop a predictive score for moderate-severe chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) on day +100 after allogeneic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We studied 1292 patients allografted between 1990 and 2016, alive on day +100 after transplant, without cGVHD, and with full biochemistry laboratory values available. Patients were randomly assigned to a training and a validation cohort (ratio 1:1). In the training cohort, a multivariate analysis identified 4 independent predictors of moderate-severe cGVHD: gamma-glutamyl transferase >= 75 UI/l, creatinine >= 1 mg/dl, cholinesterase <= 4576 UI/l, and albumin <= 4 g/dl. A score of 1 was assigned to each variable, producing a low (0 to 1), intermediate (2 to 3), and high (4) score. The cumulative incidence of moderate-severe cGVHD was 12%, 20%, and 52% (P<.0001) in the training cohort, and 13%, 24%, and 33% (P = .002) in the validation cohort, respectively. The 5-year cumulative incidence of transplant-related mortality (TRM) was 5%, 14%, 27% (P<.0001) and 5%, 16%, 31% (P<.0001), respectively. The 5-year survival was 64%, 57%, 54% (P = .009) and 70%, 59%, 42% (P = .0008) in the 2 cohorts, respectively. In conclusion, Day100 score predicts cGVHD, TRM, and survival and, if validated in a separate group of patients, could be considered for trials of preemptive therapy.