Tests for cointegration with structural breaks based on subsamples

Andrea Monticini, James Davidson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

This paper considers tests for cointegration with allowance for structural breaks, using the extrema of residual-based tests over subsamples of the data. One motivation for the approach is to formalize the practice of data snooping by practitioners, who may examine subsamples after failing to find a predicted cointegrating relationship. Valid critical values for such multiple testing situations may be useful. The methods also have the advantage of not imposing a form for the alternative hypothesis, in particular slope vs. intercept shifts and single versus multiple breaks, and being comparatively easy to compute. A range of alternative subsampling procedures, including sample splits, incremental and rolling samples are tabulated and compared experimentally. Shiller's annual stock prices and dividends series provide an illustration.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2498-2511
Number of pages14
JournalCOMPUTATIONAL STATISTICS & DATA ANALYSIS
Volume54
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2010

Keywords

  • Cointegration

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