Residential electricity demand projections for Italy: A spatial downscaling approach

This work projects future residential electricity demand in Italy at the local (1 km grid) level based on population, land use, socio-economic and climate scenarios for the year 2050. A two-step approach is employed. In the first step, a grid-level model is estimated to explain land use as a function of socio-economic and demographic variables. In the second step, a provincial-level model explaining residential electricity intensity (gigawatt hours [GWh] per kilometre of residential land) as a function of socio-economic and climatic information is estimated. The estimates of the two models are then combined to project downscaled residential electricity consumption. The evidence suggests not only that the residential electricity demand will increase in the future but, most importantly, that its spatial distribution and dispersion will change in the next decades mostly due to changes in population density. Policy implications are discussed in relation to efficiency measures and the design of green energy supply from local production plants to facilitate matching demand with supply.