Pest risk assessment of Spodoptera frugiperda for the European Union

Michael Jeger, Claude Bragard, David Caffier, Thierry Candresse, Elisavet Chatzivassiliou, Katharina Dehnen-Schmutz, Gianni Gilioli, Jean-Claude Grégoire, Josep Anton Jaques Miret, Maria Navajas Navarro, Björn Niere, Stephen Parnell, Roel Potting, Trond Rafoss, Vittorio Rossi, Gregor Urek, Ariena Van Bruggen, Wopke Van Der Werf, Jonathan West, Stephan WinterRoger Day, Regan Early, Allan Hruska, Rodney Nagoshi, Ciro Gardi, Olaf Mosbach-Schultz, Alan Macleod

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

42 Citations (Scopus)


EFSA was asked for a partial risk assessment of Spodopterafrugiperda for the territory of the EU focussing on the main pathways for entry, factors affecting establishment, risk reduction options and pest management. As a polyphagous pest, five commodity pathways were examined in detail. Aggregating across these and other pathways, we estimate that tens of thousands to over a million individual larvae could enter the EU annually on host commodities. Instigating risk reduction options on sweetcorn, a principal host, reduces entry on that pathway 100-fold. However, sweetcorn imports are a small proportion of all S.frugiperda host imports, several of which are already regulated and further regulation is estimated to reduce the median number entering over all pathways by approximately 10%. Low temperatures limit the area for establishment but small areas of Spain, Italy and Greece can provide climatic conditions suitable for establishment. If infested imported commodities are distributed across the EU in proportion to consumer population, a few hundreds to a few thousands of individuals would reach NUTS 2 regions within which suitable conditions for establishment exist. Although S.frugiperda is a known migrant, entry directly into the EU from extant populations in sub-Saharan Africa is judged not feasible. However, if S. frugiperda were to establish in North Africa, in the range of thousands to over two million adults could seasonally migrate into the southern EU. Entry into suitable NUTS2 areas via migration will be greater than via commercial trade but is contingent on the establishment of S.frugiperda in North Africa. The likelihood of entry of the pest via natural dispersal could only be mitigated via control of the pest in Africa. If S.frugiperda were to arrive and become a pest of maize in the EU, Integrated Pest Management (IPM) or broad spectrum insecticides currently used against existing pests could be applied.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-120
Number of pages120
JournalEFSA Journal
Publication statusPublished - 2018


  • @risk
  • Fall armyworm
  • Migration
  • Pathway model
  • Pest establishment
  • Phytosanitary measures
  • Quantitative risk assessment


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