Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

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T Wasim, N Talat, W Tahir, J Naseem, A Akbar, S Afroze, L Ali, A Sultan, HB Ali, MH Janjua, A Janjua, S Asghar, MS Farooq, MZ Sarwar, SA Naqi, KM Gondal, SI Bukhari, M Tariq, S Javed, E Yaqoob, U Mahmood, KR Shabbir, SA Abukhalaf, A Amro, JMC Lee, A Aguilar, E Rodriguez, K Castillo, M Cukier, H Rodriguez-Zentner, E Arrue, RI Beron, AR Gonzalez, V Panduro-Correa, DK Cornelio, CEO Alvarado, VDC Sarabia, XP Vasquez-Ojeda, G Lizzetti-Mendoza, M Niquen-Jimenez, SB Shu-Yip, JLL Palacios, G Borda-Luque, SA Zegarra, EH Egoavil, CS Carmelo, RC de la Mata, D Rivas, J Targarona, Y Trujillo, MO Villanueva, A Lahoud-Velaochaga, K Cabillas, W Castaneda, JC Casas, JB Pallardel, FC Zacarias, EV Segura, DLC Condori, E Huaman, RU Oscco, CV Cabrera, YTC Colmenares, LAG Barrionuevo, DCR de Castilla, PM Doria, MR Li Valencia, A Salazar, A Sarmiento, C Diaz, E Morales, E Ore, H Zegarra, J Siccha, M Guardia, M Sandoval, GC Mendiola, M Mimbela, R Diaz-Ruiz, LA Zeta, E Cordova-Calle, HM Nunez, MR 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T Revez, MI Manso, JC Domingues, P Henriques, R Ribeiro, VI Ribeiro, N Cardoso, S Sousa, GM dos Santos, L Carvalho, C Osorio, J Antunes, S Lourenco, P Balau, M Godinho, A Pereira, N Silva, AKD Andrade, AP Rodrigues, N Borges, J Correia, I Vieira, T Ribeiro, J Catarino, R Correia, F Pais, RC Garcia, R Bento, J Cardoso, M Luis, J Henriques, JP Forte, J Maciel, JP Santos, TP Silva, A Branquinho, A Caiado, P Miranda, R Garrido, MP Ferreira, J Ascensao, B Costeira, C Cunha, LR Rodrigues, MS Fernandes, P Azevedo, J Ribeiro, I Lourenco, H Gomes, G Mendinhos, AN Pinto, A Ribeiro, CG Gil, C Lima-da-Silva, C Pereira, F Tavares, I Ferraz, JI Almeida, J Marialva, L Lopes, MJMA Costa, M Nunes-Coelho, MJ Teixeira, N Machado, JP Alfonso, P Saraiva, RL Silva, R Santos, R Almeida-Reis, T Correia-de-Sa, V Fernandes, J Almeida-Pinto, JP Goncalves, H Santos-Sousa, S Cavaleiro, AM Leite-Moreira, A Pereira-Neves, CS Faria, JM Monteiro, J Nogueiro, M Sampaio-Alves, MM Maia, P Vieira, T Pina-Vaz, F Jacome, V Devezas, A Almeida, H Silveira, S Vaz, SC Rodrigues, DC Santos, JV Grilo, AA da Silva, M Claro, AC Deus, R Branquinho, PMDD Santos, B Patracio, ACVP Lopes, JM Mendes, MF Carvalho, CM Oliveira, A Tojal, J Pinto, A Abutaka, A Zarour, M Abdelkareem, SM Ali, M Al Tarakji, R Alfkey, K Mukhtar, IR Wani, R Singh, N Bouchiba, H Mahdi, SA Mustafa, A Al Ansari, R Drasovean, A Caziuc, E Galliamov, M Agapov, V Kakotkin, E Semina, V Kubyshkin, A Kamalov, SK Efetov, VS Kochetkov, T Garmanova, P Tsarkov, I Tulina, S Rodimov, D Markaryan, E Kazachenko, A Yanishev, A Abelevich, A Bazaev, A Kokobelyan, P Zarubenko, A Zakharenko, A Novikova, G Kim, D Shmatov, M Stoliarov, M Kamenskikh, G Nambi, AS Almulhim, T Madkhali, A Alzouhir, A Alissa, E Alameer, M Badedi, AQ Alnami, H Darraj, A Alkhuzaie, F Khadwardi, M Abualjadayel, W Tashkandi, A Farsi, N Malibary, N Trabulsi, S Farsi, AS Bayazeed, M Nasser, MS Siddiqui, S Al Awwad, M Alshahrani, F Alsharif, MW Fahmi, A Gudal, A Alasmari, S Alqahtani, S Majrashi, A Mashat, R Al Raddadi, A Alharbi, Y Nasser, H Hamayel, A Alhojaili, R Aljohani, O Sogair, O Alfarhan, A Alzahrani, B Alzomaili, MA Azab, M Alotaibi, A Maashi, A Zowgar, M Alsakkaf, M Alnemary, S Khayat, S Felmban, A Almhmadi, M Alqannas, DC Guiral, M Alyami, A Elawad, A Alhefdhi, F Alresaini, W Kurdi, M Tulbah, M Aldakheel, N Alsahan, S Koussayer, H Elsheikh, M Al-qattan, S Alshanafey, A Rafique, N Mahabbat, B Saeed, E Al-Kharashi, K Alsowaina, N Arab, F Aljaber, I Al Hasan, A Alghamdi, F Badahdah, A Alghuliga, F Abdulfattah, F Alanazi, F Albaqami, A Alsuhaibani, A AlFakhri, S Alqasem, N Alajaji, T Nouh, A Bin Nasser, J Alowais, A Alburakan, O Alamri, A Albdah, K Alawi, M Alshalhoub, K ElSanhoury, A Almofarreh, S Ibrahim, H Elshafie, I Osman, T Guzman, H Mutair, A Siddiqui, S Chowdhury, R Alghamdi, S Almutrafi, J Alfaifi, A Alshitwi, N Alkreedees, M Alramadhan, M Alshehri, S Alobaysi, A Alshahrani, A Alshehri, M Alrashed, T Altahan, T Alsabahi, R Alhossaini, M Sbaih, Y Alalawi, K Alnwijy, A Al Ayed, S Ghedan, R Alharthi, S Awad, M Sharara, S Abdelrhman, W Althobaiti, L Srbinovic, M Perovic, Z Mikovic, B Nikolic, M Vasiljevic, V Pazin, VM Markovic, D Dimitrijevic, N Zecevic, P Gregoric, D Micic, Z Loncar, K Doklestic, N Ivancevic, V Djukic, D Stojakov, R Ilic, P Savic, N Pijanovic, M Milanovic, M Radosavljevic, T Dejanovic, M Kostic, J Paskas, S Bojic, P Stevanovic, M Djuric, M Kadija, G Tulic, IG Jovanovic, B Lieske, E Kayombo, I Kruger, M De Kock, A Malan, C Ferreira, H Du Preez, W Mulder, C Noel, S Le Grange, O Lusawana, C Kies, E Steyn, J Janson, JJP Buitendag, K Chu, M Mihalik, R Nel, S Naidoo, C Kloppers, D Nel, E Jonas, H Pickard, M Bernon, N Almgla, S Rayamajhi, W Mugla, C Carapinha, GY Hyman, M Fourtounas, R Moore, AS Mozo, HA Lopez, AZ Pinedo, MJ Toscano, NA de la Fuente, G Mancebo, L Cecchini, M Munarriz, MC Labat, AL Campillo, P Martorell, CA Espinosa, PC Vivancos, IV Ateca, MP Calvo, H Maron, PM Playa, A Gainza, EJA Achig, AR Fraga, IM Corcostegui, 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Jimenez-Roldan, JD Fernandez, AP Nunez, A Lagares, DG Perez, M Santas, I Paredes, OE Sinovas, L Moreno-Gomez, E Rubio, V Vega, AV Lopez, ML Martinez, OG Villar, PMP Torres, J Garcia-Borda, EF Herrero, P Gomez, CE Fernandez, C Ojeda-Thies, JMP Garcia, M Di Martino, AD Rodriguez, JG Septiem, RM Gonzalez, LD Bardalo, AC Bonito, E Martin-Perez, JEG Villayzon, BA Martin, PL Lominchar, L Martin, M Fernadez, C Rey-Valcarcel, M Tousidonis, LMA Caballero, A Lowy, PA Ortuno, EA Herrera, JC Velasco, J Aragon-Chamizo, MDP Diaz, O Mateo-Sierra, B Quintana-Villamandos, JM Barrio, M Fanjul, C Sanchez-Perez, ML Fernandez, S Hernandez-Kakauridze, J Rio, DD Perez, JS Gonzalez, LC Garcia, MG Samaniego, MAH Bartolome, PG Jara, EE Agusto, J Ripollas-Melchor, A Abad-Motos, A Abad-Gurumeta, E Martinez-Hurtado, A Ruiz-Escobar, N Brogly, E Guasch, AH Gutierrez, JLB Rasero, Y Perez, V Garcia-Pineda, M Gracia, JS Ridruejo, MD Diestro, JI Sanchez-Mendez, C Marti, M Melendez, E Moreno-Palacios, A Loayza, L Frias, 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Munoz-Bellvis, LE Parez-Sanchez, VC Martin, AD Garcia, M Vallve-Bernal, AC Rey, GMP Hervella, LD Carregal, MIR Fernandez, M Freijeiro, SE Vega, S De Compostela, AL Picardo, A Cuadrado-Garcia, DS de Colsa, JAR Lopez, FSC Noguera, IO Vazquez, LGS Tellez, P Mato, JH Aznar, JJ Fraile, D Morales-Garcia, M Carrillo-Rivas, ET Martinez, A Pascual, A Senent-Boza, A Sanchez-Arteaga, I Benitez-Linero, F Manresa-Manresa, L Tallon-Aguilar, L Melero-Cortes, MR Fernandez-Maron, VM Duran-Munoz-Cruzado, I Ramallo-Solis, P Beltran-Miranda, F Pareja-Ciuro, BT Anton-Eguia, FO Mompean, J Gomez-Rosado, J Reguera-Rosal, J Valdes-Hernandez, L Capitan-Morales, MDD Lopez, MA Boira, RM Ikuga, M Abellan, R Sales, C Olona, R Jorba, JH Gutierrez, AT Zamora, J Sancho-Muriel, H Cholewa, M Frasson, J Domenech, AR Anon, MJ Sanguesa, D Moro-Valdezate, M Garces-Albir, F Lopez, JC Bernal-Sprekelsen, JCC Bauset, PR Ferrer, CM Perez, O Gil-Albarova, JG Estelles, K Aghababyan, B De Andres-Asenjo, JB de Heredia, A Vazquez-Fernandez, FJO De Solorzano-Aurusa, J Trujillo-Diaz, M Ruiz-Soriano, C Jezieniecki, T Gomez-Sanz, H Nunez-Del Barrio, A Romero-De Diego, V Garcia-Virto, HJ Aguado, MTF Martin, FJ Tejero-Pintor, B Perez-Saborido, EC Bhojwani, FA Garcia, P Marcos-Santos, ADB Canones, JS Gonzalez, M Toledano, M Bailon, DP Sanchez, MPG Senorans, R Sanchez-Santos, AV Melero, D Garcia, E Diez, I Herrero, IM Soeda, M Camuera, M Balluerca, M Sanchez-Rubio, PP Vazquez, A Martinez-German, C Gracia-Roche, I Gascon-Ferrer, V Duque-Mallen, MDC De Miguel-Ardevines, N Sanchez-Fuentes, MS Santero-Ramirez, M Matute-Najarro, M Herrero-Lopez, M Sanchez-Rubio, M Cantalejo-Diaz, MT Gonzalez-Nicolas-Trebol, S Saudi-Moro, UM Jariod-Ferrer, F Rivas, J Escartin, JLB Laina, A Nogues, B Cros, IT El-Abur, JG Egea, C Yanez, U Jayarajah, S Ravindrakumar, VSD Rodrigo, A Arulanantham, GBKD Bandara, HKS Hamid, EE Ali, ABH Widatalla, I Bakheit, M Awadelkarim, AAA Karar, M Saleh, H Taflin, P Myrelid, LA Braz, L Hagander, M 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Shream, W Alhaddad, A Maqus, M Abu Hamra, R Alsayadi, R Ghannam, S Al-Maqtari, S Masdoos, Y Al-Harazi, H Bajjah, S Al-Ameri, M Aldawbali, GP Gwini, D Mazingi

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article

Abstract

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1274-1292
Number of pages19
JournalBritish Journal of Surgery
Volume108
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Cohort Studies
  • Datasets as Topic
  • Humans
  • Machine Learning
  • Models, Statistical
  • Risk Assessment
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Surgical Procedures, Operative

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