Leveraging on the representativeness heuristic in the decision making process: A conceptual model

This paper offers a theoretical framework on the contingencies that may shape the use and effectiveness of applying a representativeness heuristic in the decision-making process. Deviating from the dominant approach of regarding heuristics as purely positive versus negative, we focus on how experience affects the outcomes of representativeness and on how intuition, as a hyper-subjective factor playing a synthetic function, and overconfidence, as a behavioural bias, may alter this effect. We unbundle the notion of experience into two main aspects, i.e. experience heterogeneity and experience codification. To offer a nuanced perspective on the conditions that may alter the effectiveness of representativeness, we bring into our conceptual model the role played by two particularly relevant cognitive and behavioural contingencies, respectively intuition and overconfidence. Our conceptualization suggests the existence of a non-linear relationship between experience heterogeneity and codification and the effectiveness of representativeness. Furthermore, we propose that intuition and overconfidence may play moderating roles. Finally, research avenues that may contribute to the ongoing conversation on heuristics in decision-making processes are outlined.